Down on Da Farm

September 4, 2020 at 12:30 PM
2015 Draft Retrospective: The end of the Cherington era

Thank you for checking in on the newest entry in our draft retrospective series. Tuesday was a pick-by-pick rundown of 2015, while today we will dig a little deeper into a few of the more interesting and prominent draftees. For a quick list and links to player pages, check out our Draft History page.

2015 Draft

Background:
Cherington had the magic touch after the 2012 season, with basically every move he made at the major league level contributing to the 2013 World Series victory. A lot of these signings were role players or undervalued regulars, and he spent about $100 million in total on Shane Victorino, Mike Napoli, Koji Uehara, Jonny Gomes, Ryan Dempster, Stephen Drew, and David Ross. With the 2014 team suffering a World Series hangover and scuffling to a 71-91 record, Cherington decided to change course.

With a revamped farm system thanks to the 2011 draft, several talented, cost-controlled players such as Mookie Betts, Jackie Bradley Jr., Blake Swihart, Henry Owens, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Matt Barnes were either knocking on the door to the majors by the end of the 2014 season or were already there. This, combined with the financial flexibility from the Adrian Gonzalez trade to the Dodgers, allowed Cherington to flex Boston's financial muscle and pay a premium for established talent and high-end international professionals. $255 million later, the Red Sox had signed Pablo Sandoval, Hanley Ramirez, and Rusney Castillo, three signings that would, arguably, ultimately cost Cherington his job.

On top of the financial obligations to Sandoval and Ramirez, their signings also required the Red Sox to surrender picks 47 and 72 in the 2015 draft and the accompanying $2,144,900 in slot value. Equipped with the 7th pick for the second time in three years, Red Sox fans were hoping the 7th overall pick would more resemble Trot Nixon from the 1993 draft than Trey Ball from the 2013 draft.

The Vitals
General Manager: Ben Cherington
Scouting Director: Mike Rikard

Major Leaguers drafted and signed
Andrew Benintendi (1st round, 9.7 bWAR)
Travis Lakins (6th round, 0.5 bWAR)
Bobby Poyner (14th round, 0.4 bWAR)
Ben Taylor (7th round, -0.1 bWAR)
Logan Allen (8th round, -0.3 bWAR)
Trevor Kelley (36th round, -0.4 bWAR)

Unsigned players who reached the major leagues
Kevin Ginkel (26th round, 0.4 bWAR)

No room for error
With their second selection not coming until pick 81 and over $2 million of bonus money forfeited for free agent signings, the Red Sox had to hit on the 7th overall pick. As was noted in the previous Draft Retrospective post, the Red Sox were all over LSU shortstop Alex Bregman during the 2015 college season, but when it was clear that he was going earlier than pick seven, it was uncertain which direction the Red Sox would take. By the time the draft came, it looked like they were locked in on Andrew Benintendi (pictured, above) and Vanderbilt right-hander Carson Fulmer.

Like Bregman, Fulmer was drafted by the Red Sox in 2012, and his college career was nothing short of fantastic. As a sophomore, he was named the SEC Pitcher of the Year and led the Commodores to the 2014 College World Series title. In the summer of 2014, he pitched for the United States collegiate national team, and in 2015 he won the National Pitcher of the Year Award and was a finalist for the Golden Spikes Award, college baseball's Heisman trophy. Boston's failure to develop pitching prospects was already well-documented at the time, but they rarely had a chance to draft a pitcher like Fulmer.

While Fulmer was one of the most heavily-scouted players in the years leading up to the draft, Benintendi was flying completely under the radar. A draft-eligible sophomore after a freshman season that saw him hit .276/.368/.333 with one home run in 61 games, it was reported that several teams did not even know that Benintendi was draft-eligible until March of his sophomore season. At the end of March, Arkansas was 14-14 and Benintendi had 7 home runs, but over their final 29 games, they went 21-8 and Benintendi hit 12 more home runs en route to a College World Series birth. In the Super Regionals, Benintendi (and Boston's 35th-round pick, Tyler Spoon) beat Missouri State and Boston's fourth-round pick Tate Matheny (pictured, above).

In all, Benintendi hit .380/.489/.715 and beat out Fulmer to win the Golden Spikes Award. Once he was in the fold, the early returns were outstanding: he breezed through the minors and made his major league debut on August 2, 2016, less than 14 months after draft day. He was an above-average regular in 2017 and 2018 for the Red Sox, finishing second in Rookie of the Year balloting in the former and reaching the final vote for an All-Star spot in the latter. After tailing off in the second half of 2018, he was closer to league average in 2019 and his play dropped off significantly to start 2020. An age 23 season that featured a 4.5 bWAR and key role leading the Red Sox to a World Series title feels like something of a distant memory, but at just 26-years-old he has plenty of time, and will get plenty of chances, to right the ship.

So where would Benintendi go in a 2015 re-draft? While his stock may be low in the eyes of fans right now, it is important to put his play in perspective. At 9.7 bWAR, he is third in total bWAR behind Bregman and Cardinals fourth-round pick Paul DeJong from this draft. Players like Mike Soroka, Walker Buehler, Chris Paddack, Brandon Lowe, Triston McKenzie, and Kyle Tucker may arguably have more value than Benintendi right now, but in a re-draft, the chances of Benintendi slipping out of the top 10 are slim. Considering that Fulmer has been a negative-bWAR contributor in the majors, it would be very hard to argue the Red Sox didn't make the right pick here, even with his recent struggles. Frankly, his contributions to the 2018 championship alone justify the pick.

Playing it safe and getting burned
Similar to the 2020 draft, the Red Sox were handcuffed by the lack of a second-rounder. Knowing that Benintendi would require the full slot amount of $3,590,400, they only had $2,944,590 to work with, assuming that they would go five percent over their cap amount. They did not have much room to get creative, so in rounds three, four, and five, they found players they could sign for the exact slot amount. Austin Rei, ranked 68th by Baseball America ("BA"), was taken with the 81st overall pick. Matheny (BA #107) was picked at 111, and Jagger Rusconi (BA #322) was picked at 141. These three would require $1,639,100 collectively to sign, and while all three are still in the system, they are profile as upper minors depth at this point.

Logan Allen's place in history
The Red Sox did well in rounds six and seven, getting Travis Lakins (pictured, left) for slightly above-slot and Ben Taylor for just $10,000. Both players would go on to make the majors for Boston before moving on to other organizations. The money Boston saved on Taylor and, subsequently, on ninth and 10th rounders Tucker Tubbs and Mitchell Gunsolus went to Logan Allen, BA's 128th-ranked prospect in the draft. The South Carolina commit was a perfect 9-0 with a 0.87 ERA at IMG Academy in Florida, and when he signed in Boston and debuted in the GCL, his numbers were eerily similar. He was on an innings-limit so he did not record any wins or losses, but he had an ERA of 0.90 over 20 innings, striking out 24 and walking only one. The buzz around Allen was starting to grow, and it looked like the Red Sox did well to get him into the organization for third-round money.

When Dave Dombrowski took over for Cherington in August 2015, fans knew based on Dombrowski's reputation that many of their favorite prospects would be traded in the coming years and that he would be willing to pay a steep prospect price to get his targets in a way that Cherington was not. Allen was one of the first players out the door, as he was traded along with Carlos Asuaje, Javier Guerra, and Manuel Margot to the Padres for Craig Kimbrel. His inclusion in that deal made Allen was the first player traded under the "Trea Turner rule," which allowed recent draftees to be traded after the World Series was completed in the year they were drafted. Previously, teams had to wait a full calendar year after a player's signing date to trade them, but were allowed to make them players-to-be-named-later, which is what kept Turner in limbo for half of the 2015 season despite it being no secret he was heading from San Diego to Washington.

Allen's inclusion in the Kimbrel trade looks even worse in hindsight. Margot was a top-100 prospect in baseball and ranked fourth in the Red Sox system, while Guerra was not too far behind him at six. Asuaje was a borderline top-20 player in the system as well, and the odds of anyone else topping that package for Kimbrel was unlikely. But Dombrowski threw in Allen as a lottery ticket—a decision that was questionable at the time, never mind in hindsight—making it a four-for-one deal and entrenching Kimbrel as Boston's closer for the next three seasons. Allen is now in Cleveland's pitching development juggernaut, and at just 23-years-old, his best years are ahead of him. He may not profile as a future ace, but he certainly would have been seeing significant time in Boston over the past season-and-a-half.

Missed opportunities
The overall talent of the 2015 draft was solid, but the first-round is littered with players who will never make the major leagues. Fulmer was taken one pick after Benintendi, but the White Sox rushed him to the majors in 2016 and he never recovered. He was designated for assignment in July 2020 and is now with Cherington in Pittsburgh. Ian Happ was another player who could have been on Boston's radar at pick seven, and after a couple seasons that saw him contribute slightly-above average offense while being a liability on defense, he was demoted for most of the 2019 season. He is having a breakout season in 2020 as he has gotten his strikeout rate below 30 percent.

While it would have been great to draft a lot of the players mentioned earlier, they were either gone by the time Boston was back on the clock in round three or they were not rated high enough to take at pick seven. This underscores the squandering of the two picks that were surrendered for Sandoval and Ramirez, as they had no chance to get creative and had to play the board as it fell to them.

Final thoughts
At this point the draft hinges on Benintendi, and based on his pedigree, it would be foolish to write him off. There was nothing fluky about his 2018 season when he was a borderline All-Star, and in 2019 his batted ball profile showed that he got a bit unlucky, with an expected slugging percentage of .470 compared with his actual slugging percentage of .431. His 2020 season, prior to the rib injury that now appears to have ended his campaign, was ugly, but it was just a 14-game sample size in a very bizarre year under unique circumstances. The Red Sox still view him highly, and he will enter 2021 with a starting spot unless another team decides to overpay for him in a trade.

The only other player still in the organization who might reasonably provide some value is Poyner (pictured, right), though he was ultimately removed from the 40-man roster, cleared waivers, and is no longer in the 2020 Player Pool. 2015's draft class, headlined by a single early pick followed by two forfeited selections, looked fated to potentially become a one-man draft in a way that even the 2013 draft was not. So far, the return has been solid with Benintendi, whose return to form will determine whether the draft is viewed along the lines of 2004 when Dustin Pedroia's stellar career more than made up for a lack of depth.

Photo Credit: Andrew Benintendi, Tate Matheny, Travis Lakins, and Bobby Poyner by Kelly O'Connor

A look at life at the Red Sox alternate training site
By Julian McWilliams Globe Staff,Updated September 7, 2020, 2:57 p.m.


Jonathan Lucroy pulled up to Providence Bagel one recent morning.

“Just give me a second; I’m ordering some food here,” said Lucroy, pausing mid-thought. “Yeah, can I get a sausage egg and cheese on a plain bagel, please?”

Lucroy then turned back to the conversation.

“Sorry about that,” he said. “This is a good spot.”

It’s a spot Lucroy visits frequently before heading to the Red Sox’ alternate site at McCoy Stadium in Pawtucket, R.I. It’s the first time in a big-league career that’s spanned more than 10 years that he’s had to, really, start from the beginning.



Lucroy, 34, is a part of the Red Sox taxi squad. And unlike his breakfast choice, this reality isn’t easy to chew on. Yet the veteran catcher who has made two All-Star teams tries to keep a fresh perspective.

“It’s an adjustment for me,” Lucroy said. “It’s the first time I’ve had to play in ’the minor leagues’ since I’ve been called up to the big leagues. It’s been 10 years.

“But it’s just an opportunity to play. If a team out there needs a catcher, I’ll be ready. I’m one cough away from being in the big leagues.”
Catcher Jonathan Lucroy broke into the majors with Milwaukee in 2010, and is looking to get back.
Catcher Jonathan Lucroy broke into the majors with Milwaukee in 2010, and is looking to get back.Barry Chin/Globe Staff

Nothing, of course, is normal about this year of the COVID-19 pandemic. That trickles down to the taxi squad, which has many of the same protocols as the big league team; players are tested every other day and spend much of their time in their hotel rooms. But unlike the major leaguers, they don’t get to play other teams, just intrasquad games at McCoy Stadium.

“Some days we play two innings, some days we play eight innings,” said Lucroy, who noted that he tries to work with the younger pitchers as much as he can. “It depends on what pitchers need to throw.”

Typically, the players’ report time is noon, but they often show up 30 minutes earlier, especially if they are due for a COVID-19 test. It’s a quick turnaround for a pitcher. By 12:45 p.m., if he’s not on the schedule to pitch that day, he usually has to be on the field stretching.

The schedule isn’t grueling, really. The whole purpose is to get in and get out and spend the least amount of time as possible at the stadium.


Life on the taxi squad differs in its purpose, depending on whom you talk to. While Lucroy is using this as an opportunity to prove he deserves to be back on an MLB roster, other players — particularly younger ones — are utilizing it to focus on weaknesses in their game.

Once the minor league season was canceled, player development hit the backburner. A lot of teams invited some of their top prospects to camp so they could stay on track.

Prospects Jarren Duran and Tanner Houck are included in that. Duran, an outfielder, used the offseason to reinvent his swing. He has exhibited little power, with just eight homers in his two seasons. But at the alternate site, Duran has turned heads, displaying more power and a cleaner approach at the plate. He has worked tirelessly on his swing with Portland Sea Dogs hitting coach Lance Zawadzki.

“I’ve worked on my swing path,” Duran said. “Cleaning things up, making them a lot simpler than they used to be.”



Houck, a righthanded pitcher, has a history of struggling against lefthanded hitters. So sometimes when he pitches, the Sox will load the opposing lineup with lefties.

“A lot of my outings, I have thrown to all the lefties that we have here,” Houck said. “Where it’s just like one after the other and continuing to develop that and trying to hone that.”

The players don’t have much communication with each other. Everything is pretty spread out, and the whole purpose of the setup is for them to get in their work as quickly as possible and go back to the hotel.


And at the hotel is where it gets tricky. Even there, Houck said, players can’t be around one another, leaving a ton of downtime alone.

Is there some kind of video game crew to pass the time? Apparently so.

“You hit the nail right on the head,” Houck said. “There’s a group of us playing Call of Duty. We’re playing a lot of Modern Warfare.”

The players who participate stay in their own rooms so they can maintain social distance.

“I usually get a ride from Jeter [Downs],” Duran said, “and the only time I talk to him after that is when we are playing Call of Duty. I don’t see anybody after I get back to the hotel.”

The adjustment to being confined isn’t for the weak of heart. But, again, perspective matters.



“I get to play baseball every day,” Duran said. “It’s better than some of these other guys that don’t get to play baseball against competition.”


Pitching prospect Jay Groome, who has had his share of injuries, including Tommy John surgery, has an even lighter perspective.

“Honestly, I’m used to having this downtime,” Groome said with a smile. “I’m used to focusing on myself. It’s obviously a lot different here in a hotel. I don’t know, I think you just have to suck it up a little bit. It stinks, but everyone is going through it, too.”


Lucroy has had to suck it up, too, hoping for a last taste at the breakfast table, while others are looking for their first.

“I tell you what,” Lucroy said, “if you take baseball for granted, it can go away quickly for whatever reason.”

New prospect Connor Seabold is already impressing at Red Sox alternate site
By Peter Abraham Globe Staff,Updated September 9, 2020, 1 hour ago


Rick Vanderhook has coached the baseball team at Cal State Fullerton for nine years, a run that has included seven NCAA tournament appearances and two College World Series berths.

One of his foundational beliefs is that pitchers should throw only fastballs and changeups during offseason workouts and scrimmages.

“If you can command your fastball, it’s like having multiple pitches,” Vanderhook said. "You can throw it inside or outside and elevate it. Everything plays off fastball command. I make them learn that.

“I’d rather have a pitcher who can throw a strike when he has to instead of somebody throwing 98 and has no idea where it’s going.”

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It’s a philosophy that has worked for the Titans, who have seven pitchers on major league rosters this season. Connor Seabold believes it’s what will lead him to the Red Sox.

Seabold, a 24-year-old righthander, was one of the prospects the Sox obtained from the Philadelphia Phillies last month in the deal for relievers Heath Hembree and Brandon Workman.
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He was 23-15 with a 2.89 earned run average in 56 games for Fullerton with 294 strikeouts and only 44 walks over 280 innings. The Phillies selected him in the third round of the 2017 draft.

“They did a great job in college hammering it in not to give up walks,” Seabold said. “That’s how you have success. A lot of teams in our conference play small ball, and you can’t walk hitters and get away with it. I learned how to pitch.”

The key now for Seabold is building up innings. He had a full minor league season in 2018, making 23 starts and reaching Double A. But in 2019, a strained oblique muscle in the early days of spring training followed by a triceps strain limited him to 12 games and 56⅓ innings.

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Seabold had a 2.24 ERA when he pitched. But it felt like his development had been paused, as he didn’t return to Double A until late July.

The Phillies sent Seabold to the Arizona Fall League, where he posted a 1.06 ERA over four starts and 17 innings with 22 strikeouts and three walks.

“That was awesome for me,” Seabold said. “What I was able to do there really made a difference because the season had been so frustrating with the injuries. It felt like I had picked up where I left off in 2018.”

Scouts took notice of the improvement in his changeup and saw that his fastball sat at 92-93 m.p.h. with occasional flashes to 94.

“A lot of swing and miss with his pitches,” a National League evaluator said. “To me, he looked like a No. 3 or 4 starter in the majors. There was a lot to like. He competes on the mound.”

One benefit of the injury-marred season was that Seabold worked on his changeup, altering how he pronated his wrist to improve the action on the pitch.

“It has almost a screwball movement, and my command improved,” he said. “I’d be comfortable with it against righties. I feel like it’s going to be my money-maker because I can throw it for strikes and it’s pretty easy to get guys out.”

Oddly, the Phillies did not invite Seabold to major league spring training. But he was added to the club’s player pool when baseball started back up in July.

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He has since joined the Red Sox workout group at Pawtucket and impressed the coaches there.

“Very impressive. I can see why we wanted this guy,” Pawtucket manager Billy McMillon said. “He’s gone out there and competed really well. He looks really good. I think his ceiling is up there with some of the best ones.”

Paul Abbott, the Pawtucket pitching coach, didn’t know Seabold before the trade but knew of him. He’s from southern California and his daughter is friendly with Seabold’s girlfriend, Sammie Vandiver, a former Titans softball player.

“I had paid attention to him before we traded for him,” Abbott said. "Now that I’ve had a chance to work with him, I like what I’ve seen. Everything he throws is around the strike zone.

“His fastball is sneaky-fast and has good carry, and his delivery is clean and efficient. His slider is serviceable and I think it’ll get better. He’s got a good idea of what he’s doing.”

Seabold’s consistent release point and arm angle allow him to tunnel his pitches, meaning his pitches look the same coming out of his hand and change direction or speed at a point where it becomes more difficult for hitters to adjust.

“His fastball gets on you,” Abbott said. “He’s one of those guys who makes his stuff better.”

The Red Sox see Seabold as a pitcher who, with more experience, will be a rotation candidate.

That’s a good return for two relievers. The Phillies won 10 of 12 games after making the trade as Workman stabilized what had been a shaky bullpen. But if Seabold develops into a starter, the Sox will reap long-term benefits.

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“We have some starters in the organization who will soon be knocking on the door, and he’ll be one of them,” Abbott said. “We traded for him for a reason.”

Seabold wasn’t expecting the trade, and it took a few days to “feel the love” of a new organization.

“You wake up one day and hear Brandon Workman rumors and next thing you know you’re on your way to a new team,” he said. "It’s weird coming into a new clubhouse. But fans have reached out in social media and I see what the passion is for the Red Sox.

“It’s been cool. They’ve let me do my thing and hopefully I can put myself in a position where I can get to Fenway Park. I appreciate that they wanted me.”

Hudson Potts, new Red Sox prospect, rooted for Mitch Moreland as Rangers season-ticket holder before being traded for Boston fan favorite
Updated 1:25 PM; Today 1:19 PM
Hudson Potts

This is a 2020 photo of Hudson Potts of the San Diego Padres baseball team. This image reflects the Padres active roster as of Feb. 20, 2020 when this image was taken. (AP Photo/Ralph Freso) AP
By Chris Cotillo | ccotillo@MassLive.com

As a middle and high-schooler in the early 2010s, Hudson Potts was a Rangers season-ticket holder during the early part of Mitch Moreland’s career. Sitting in his family’s seats at what was then known as the Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, Potts could have never imagined he’d be traded for Moreland less than a decade later.

That’s what happened late last month, when Potts was one of two prospects the Padres sent to the Red Sox for Moreland ahead of the Aug. 31 trade deadline. For Potts, being traded across the country in the middle of a global pandemic was surprising enough. The fact he was dealt for one of his childhood heroes added an extra layer of shock.

“It was definitely pretty crazy to see when that was announced,” Potts said on a Monday Zoom call from Pawtucket. “Obviously, a lot of my friends grew up watching. All of my best friends from high school say stuff about it. They think it’s cool. It’s crazy to think that I’m in a situation now where that’s even capable of happening. That’s something cool to see.”

Potts, a Southlake, Texas native, grew up 20 minutes from Arlington and considered infielders Michael Young and Ian Kinsler to be his favorite players. When Texas reached the World Series in both 2010 and 2011, Potts was in middle school and was glued to every pitch.

During those years, Potts also watched Moreland, a former 17th-round pick who first reached the majors in 2010 and ascended into a full-time role a year later. Moreland spent the first seven years of his career with the Rangers before signing with the Red Sox before the 2017 season.

“I watched him -- I don’t know what exact years he was playing for them -- but I definitely followed and watched him when I was in high school and maybe middle school,” Potts said. “I’m very familiar with him and watching him play.”

Moreland, of course, became a fan favorite in Boston over the next four seasons, helping the club win a World Series in 2018. But with the Sox rebuilding ahead of the Aug. 31 trade deadline, they made the decision to trade the veteran to San Diego for Potts, 21, and Rosario, 20.

Potts, who was drafted as Hudson Sanchez before taking his stepfather’s last name, was a first-round pick (24th overall) in 2016 and reached Double-A last season. The power-hitting infielder hit 56 home runs over the last three seasons and was ranked by MLB.com as San Diego’s 16th-best prospect at the time of the deal.

“Hudson Potts is primarily a third baseman, although he did see some time at second base last summer as well,” Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom said at the time of the trade. “A big, physical kid with a lot of power and a good arm. Really good tools. A chance particularly as he continues to develop his approach that he could be a real asset with the bat and also be able to play multiple positions.”

Because Potts was 17 when he was drafted, he has always been one of the youngest players at his level. Though he has been in a professional for five seasons, he’s still considered to be a raw talent because of his age.

“I had a long way to go, to learn my body and learn everything and work on anything from throwing to running to defense and everything in my hitting,” Potts said. “I’ve had to learn. I was kind of dragged into a spot where I had to learn quick when I was signed. That’s what I’ve done. I feel like I’ve brought all levels of my game up since then.”

Though Potts isn’t going to play any games as a member of the Red Sox organization, he’s getting a chance to show the organization how he plays at the club’s alternate site in Pawtucket. There, he was reunited with a few of his Arizona Fall League teammates from 2019 -- including Jarren Duran, C.J. Chatham, Tanner Houck and Bryan Mata -- and is getting a sense of how the organization operates.

In his first intrasquad game in Pawtucket after the trade, Potts homered off Houck. In less than two weeks in Pawtucket, he has also impressed coaches with his temperament.

“His manners are very, very good,” said PawSox hitting coach Rich Gedman. “He’s an imposing figure for a young guy, he’s 6′2′' or 6′3′'. You hope your daughter walks in with someone like him when it’s time to have a boyfriend. He’s raw, talented, has got a good arm. More than anything, he’s hungry to learn. It seems like he’s happy to be here. There’s talent in there. There’s no question. You can see an upside in there. It’s first glance, they’re probably on their best behavior, but I certainly don’t see a downside to that young man at the moment. That’s for sure.”

Instead of being a building block for the surging Padres, Potts is now a lottery ticket who could make an impact for the Red Sox in the coming years. He’s happy to get the chance to join an organization that is prioritizing young talent.

“It was definitely a different experience,” Potts said. “It kind of felt like I was drafted all over again. It all was kind of a surprise out of nowhere. It was time to turn things around, get going and head out here. That day, I didn’t really have too much time to think about it and think about all the relationships I had in the Padres organization. It was a new experience, for sure, but it has been good and fun and I’m just really excited to get out here.”

MLB poised to take control of minor leagues — but which teams will survive?
By Michael Silverman Globe Staff,Updated September 14, 2020, 5:51 p.m.


The deadline for a new agreement between Major League Baseball and Minor League Baseball looms at the end of this month.

The death knell for minor league baseball’s 119-year run of independence is, however, already ringing loudly.

Regardless of whether the sides reach an agreement on their expiring Professional Baseball Agreement, MLB is poised to re-create MiLB in an image to its own liking. That rebirth includes MLB securing control over minor league business and baseball operations, eliminating MiLB’s central offices in St. Petersburg, Fla., in order to run the league out of MLB’s New York headquarters, and stripping big-league affiliation from at least 42 of the current 160 minor league teams spread across the country.

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The end of the National Association of Baseball Leagues, which has operated in tandem with — but independently from — MLB since 1901, is “virtually certain,” according to one minor league owner. The pared-down system would feature 120 teams, four per big league team.
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Related: Silverman: In Lowell, loss of the Spinners this summer is nothing short of a calamity

The fate of the Lowell Spinners, the Red Sox' short-season New York-Penn League Single A franchise, remains very much up in the air. Each of the 30 teams in the majors needs to let MLB know where it wants its affiliates to play. According to one baseball source, the Red Sox are among the teams who have not finalized their list.

After last fall and winter’s public squabbling and accusations of each party acting in poor faith, the sides are currently making what each describes privately as good progress with a cordial tone.

Longtime MiLB president Pat O’Conner resigned abruptly last week. The move was deemed inevitable by some owners who felt O’Conner was unable to create leverage or make meaningful concessions in the talks. However, it is a departure that will not materially affect the expected fate of the negotiations.

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Approximately a half-dozen joint committees made up of MLB officials and MiLB owners have been formed to hammer out details missing from a presentation made by MLB to the MiLB negotiating committee last month.
What does the future hold for LeLacheur Park?
What does the future hold for LeLacheur Park?David Lyon

The 41-deck PowerPoint presentation, titled “MiLB Business Plan,” encapsulated MLB’s views that the current system fails to capitalize fully on MiLB as an asset by increasing focus on the game’s future crop of players. By leaning on its current leadership team and commercial connections, MLB is dangling multiple carrots in front of the minor league owners.

Sponsorships, broadcasting, and marketing — including amped-up digital strategies, ticketing technologies, merchandising, fantasy games, virtual reality, and sports betting — are what MLB is saying it can deliver and that MiLB cannot.

One new idea is an in-season “MLB Cup” tournament. In an event modeled after European soccer competitions, MLB teams would compete with each other as well as minor league teams to crown an annual champion. MLB teams would play in MiLB facilities for some of these contests.
Related: Abraham: With these moves, the Red Sox’ final days won’t be a total loss

The Sept. 30 expiration date for the Professional Baseball Agreement carries less weight than it seemed to earlier this year, given how the outcome is no longer in a great deal of dispute. A deal could be reached in a few weeks or, if the sides are within sight of the finish line, they could agree on an extension.

The third option is no deal, a scenario in which MLB lets the clock run out, after which it is no longer bound to negotiate and can deal with minor league owners on an individual basis.

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In MLB’s view, the current system is bloated, illogically planned when it comes to geography, too many inferior facilities, too little collaboration, and too many adversarial relations.

There are two main tracks MLB is trying to navigate in order to implement its vision.

One is presenting the 120 surviving minor league teams a palatable financial deal, one based on each team incurring fewer expenses by eliminating payments to both their league and MiLB central offices.
What's Rob Manfred's plan for the minor leagues going forward?
What's Rob Manfred's plan for the minor leagues going forward?Curtis Compton/Atlanta Journal-Constitution via AP

No owners are complaining about fewer fixed expenses. But while they are mostly resigned to the reality that MLB is soon to gain supervisory powers, owners will be seeking to formalize language that ensures that revenue MLB plans to share is higher than each club’s current revenue apex.

The setup is likened to a franchise system, in which MLB would issue 120 “licenses,” each of them lasting 10-15 years. Minor league owners would be seeking at least 15 years, evergreen status, as well as buyout guarantees. MLB fears teams will lose incentive to be good partners if the term is extended longer than 10 years.

There is also a hot-button issue. The identity of the 42-team “hit list" will not be revealed until MLB has to do so. (The figure could grow higher if teams from existing independent leagues join the list of 120 survivors.)

MLB is no longer using the “dream team” phrase, just as it has also moved away from saying it will keep professional baseball in those 42 or so ballparks and communities. Amateur baseball, with collegiate and wood-bat leagues, could be played there, also under MLB’s umbrella.

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Because MLB says the list remains in flux, more like 50 teams have been caught in a stressful game of musical chairs before the list is revealed.

There are whispers of lawsuits from teams and leagues affected by de-affiliation. Threats of state attorneys general becoming involved where publicly financed stadium leases are affected and congressional intervention over MLB abusing its antitrust powers have also been raised.

As for the latter threat, given the ongoing pandemic and Congress’s inability to pass expanded unemployment and relief aid, as well as this being a presidential election year, few owners expect their plight to catch meaningful attention from enough legislators to stave off the inevitable.