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Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on Jul 8, 2021 11:17:10 GMT -5
Phillies @ Red Sox
Friday, 9th July 2021
7pm @ Fenway
Velasquez 3-3/4.50Vince Velasquez was lit up for five runs over six innings on Sunday in a loss to the Padres. Velasquez simply couldn't figure out a way to retire Manny Machado, who tagged him for a two-run homer in the opening frame, and a three-run blast in the third inning. He finished with four strikeouts and also issued three walks in this one. Despite his struggles, the 29-year-old righty has pitched well this season, recording a 4.50 ERA, 1.34 WHIP and 75/36 K/BB ratio across 70 innings (13 starts). Richards 4-5/4.88Garrett Richards gave up two runs in five-plus innings on Saturday in a no-decision against the Athletics. Richards gave up an RBI triple to Seth Brown in the second, and then settled nicely; allowing just one more run after he was pulled in the sixth. It's a nice beginning to July after a dreadful June for the right-hander that saw him post a 7.16 ERA over 27 2/3 innings. He lowers his overall mark to 4.88, and he'll try and build on this effort on Friday against the Phillies.
Philly are 6-4 in their last 10 games and currently in a fight with the the Braves and Nationals for 2nd in the NL East. Their offense ranks 14th with a .239 AVG, and the team has the 18th ERA (4.39).
Boston are 7-3 in their last 10 and are currently on top of the AL east by 2.5 over the Rays. The Red Sox are 3rd in AVG (.258), and 13th (4.00) in ERA.Weather: Could be an issue on Friday, could see double dip on the week-end....weather.com/weather/hourbyhour/l/bf217d537cc1c8074ec195ce07fb74de3c1593caa6033b7c3be4645ccc5b01de
Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red Sox by Josh Schonwald - 7/8/2021 Game: Philadelphia Phillies vs Boston Red SoxDate: Friday, July 9, 2021 Location: Fenway Park in Boston, MA TV: NESN As a team, the Philadelphia Phillies are putting up 4.5 runs per game, which is 14th in MLB. They are sitting with 370 runs scored while holding a team on-base percentage of .315. The Phillies have tallied 132 two-baggers as a team and have smacked 94 baseballs out of the park. They have accounted for 354 runs batted in and 659 hits so far this season, while their team batting average sits at .239. Philadelphia has a slugging percentage of .397 and have been called out on strikes 783 times, while drawing a walk on 279 occasions. The Phillies have compiled a team earned run average of 4.37 for the year (18th in baseball), and their staff has rung up 771 hitters. Their pitching staff has walked 251 opposing players and their FIP comes in at 4.16 as a unit on the season. They have earned a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.07 and their pitching staff holds a WHIP of 1.29. Phillies pitchers have conceded 107 home runs in addition to 386 runs in total (18th in the league). Phillies relief pitchers have come into the game with runners on base 71 times in addition to having 96 appearances in high leverage situations. The bullpen have accumulated 35 holds for the year (25th in the league). The Phillies relievers have accumulated a save rate of 46.3% and has entered the game in 78 save situations. They have recorded 19 saves so far this year and have blown 22 of their 41 chances to save the game. The relievers have inherited 107 runners on the campaign and 43.0% of those runners crossed the plate. The Phillies have dispatched 258 relievers to the hill so far this year. The Philadelphia Phillies have accounted for 2,180 putouts for the season, in addition to 728 assists and 49 errors. Their fielding percentage is holding steady at .983 which ranks 15th in professional baseball, and have a total of 536 double plays. The Phillies have turned 68.2% of balls in play into outs out of their 6,540 innings, which has them ranked 25th in professional baseball. Velasquez has taken the hill for 626 innings and has earned 690 K's so far in his pro baseball career. Velasquez (31-38 record in his career) sits with a FIP of 4.39 while going up against 2,695 opposing hitters in the majors. His earned run average is 4.70 (327 ER's allowed) and his career WHIP is 1.372. He has surrendered 605 hits (8.7 hits per 9 innings) with 255 free passes. The Boston Red Sox have an on-base percentage of .320 and a batting average of .258 this year. They have been rung up on 756 occasions (14th in baseball) and have totaled 761 hits. Boston has 110 home runs on the year to go along with 415 RBIs. The Red Sox hold a slugging % of .438 and they average 5.09 runs per contest (3rd in baseball). They have put up 183 doubles, while taking a walk 244 times as well as putting up 443 runs. The Boston pitching staff have surrendered 381 runs on the campaign while holding a team ERA of 3.99 (341 earned runs allowed). They have surrendered 87 homers and they relinquish 4.45 runs per 9 innings (14th in MLB). The Red Sox have a WHIP of 1.386 and have a FIP of 3.85 as a unit so far this season. They currently have a strikeout to walk ratio of 2.72 (812 strikeouts vs 299 free passes). They are sitting at 28th in MLB as a pitching staff in total hits surrendered with 768. Boston bullpen pitchers have an inherited score percentage of 29.0% of 131 inherited base runners. Their relievers have taken the field 113 times in high leverage situations in addition to 85 occasions with base runners. With 107 save situations, the Red Sox have 61 holds and 14 blown saves. They rank 9th in MLB holding a save rate of 67.4%, and they have sent 285 relief pitchers onto the field for the year. Boston has called on relievers to step onto the mound in 43 save chances and they have walked away with 29 saves. The Boston Red Sox have twisted 87 double plays and have accounted for a fielding rate of .981 (27th in professional baseball). The Red Sox have accrued 789 assists, 60 errors and are sitting with 2,311 putouts on the season. In their 6,933 innings on the diamond, the Red Sox are sitting with a defensive efficiency of 65.5% (30th in pro baseball). Thus far in his career, Richards has conceded 823 base knocks and he has 771 punch outs in 891 frames. Richards (51-46 record in his career) is the owner of a 3.75 ERA while surrendering 8.3 hits per nine innings. He has conceded a total of 371 ER's while earning a WHIP of 1.297 and having a FIP of 3.8. He has a K/BB ratio of 2.32 and he has faced 3,775 hitters in his pro baseball career.
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Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on Jul 8, 2021 11:26:37 GMT -5
SP Probables for rest of series
Game Times are supposed to be 4pm/ 1pm....
Saturday....Moore 0-1/5.60 vs Perez 7-4/3.89
Sunday..Nola 6-5/4.53 vs Pivetta 7-3/4.09
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Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on Jul 8, 2021 11:27:30 GMT -5
Red Sox Notes
@soxnotes
·
1h
The Red Sox have won each of their last 8 home games, matching their longest winning streak at Fenway Park in the last 10 seasons (also 8-0 from June 24-July 12, 2018).
During the win streak, the Sox have posted a 2.25 ERA and out-scored opponents, 54-22.
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Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on Jul 9, 2021 3:10:37 GMT -5
Red Sox Notebook
Red Sox set to take on Phillies to end first half
By Julian McWilliams Globe Staff,Updated July 8, 2021, 7:43 p.m.
Red Sox manager Alex Cora said his team had an OK West Coast trip, not a good one. The Sox finished 3-3, taking two out of three against the Athletics, followed by losing two out of three to the Angels, including Wednesday afternoon’s 5-4 setback.
The Red Sox now turn their attention to a three-game set beginning Friday night with the Phillies at Fenway Park, before heading into the All-Star break. In the last meeting, the Sox won the series, taking two of three in Philadelphia May 21-23.
The Phillies have underperformed this year. They are 42-43, which is good enough for a second-place tie with the Nationals in the National League East. Meanwhile, the Red Sox (54-34) found themselves in a tie with the Astros, Dodgers, and Giants for the most wins in baseball, with a 2½-game lead on the Rays in the American League East.
The Red Sox will have Garrett Richards on the mound Friday night against the Philllies’ Vince Velasquez, followed by Martín Pérez vs. Matt Moore on Saturday. For the series finale Sunday, Nick Pivetta will oppose the Phillies’ Aaron Nola.
Richards rebounding?
Richards’s ERA ballooned from 3.88 on June 6 to a 4.96 ERA on June 28. In four starts (16⅔ innings), he allowed 17 earned runs in that span.
The righhander has been open about his useof rosin and sunscreen to secure a better grip on the baseball. But since Major League Baseball’s crackdown on foreign substances, Richards has had difficulty adjusting.
However, in his most recent start, July 3 in Oakland, Richards allowed two runs in five innings. The Sox and Richards hope that’s a sign he’s getting back on track.
“That’s my goal every day,” Richards said after his last start. “I’m trying to fine-tune this stuff and trying to make strides, trying to be as good as I can be.”
On a downswing
The Sox’ bats hit a bit of a speed bump during their West Coast swing. In the six games, they hit a combined .203 with a .507 OPS. Nevertheless, they remain one of the better offenses in baseball, ranked fifth with a .757 OPS.
Rafael Devers continues to show why he’s a first-time All-Star. His 71 RBIs ranked second in the majors heading into Thursday behind the Blue Jays’ Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (73).
Devers, who typically gets off to slow starts, is having the best first half of his career. The third baseman is hitting .286/.352/.569 with a .921 OPS and 21 homers. Devers is controlling the strike zone better this season, with a 39 percent chase rate, after last year’s 42.3.
“I’m just trying to make my adjustments,” Devers said recently. “I’m trying to improve my plate discipline and just trying to focus on the ball that I actually want to hit in the zone. I feel like I’ve improved a lot. Obviously, I’m an aggressive swinger, like, I don’t see that many pitches, and when I get one I try to hit it as hard as I can. But at the same time, it’s just trying to improve the discipline.”
A first for Pivetta
Pivetta will make his first start against his former team on Sunday. Pivetta, who made his debut with the Phillies in 2017, struggled for most of his time in Philadelphia, with he and the club often not seeing eye-to-eye on how to attack hitters.
Pivetta had difficulty pitching at the top of the zone, where the Phillies believed his stuff played best.
But Pivetta, who was acquired in a trade in August, has a 4.09 ERA in 17 starts this season and is coming off a seven-inning performance in Oakland in which he fanned fanned 10 and didn’t allow a run, yielding just two hits.
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Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on Jul 9, 2021 3:27:14 GMT -5
Garrett Richards, Red Sox set to battle Phillies
Garrett Richards will look to get the Boston Red Sox off to a strong start in their final series before the All-Star break when they open a three-game set against the visiting Philadelphia Phillies on Friday night.
The Red Sox are tied for the major league lead with 54 victories, but they have lost two consecutive games and three of five. Boston returns home after dropping two of three against the Los Angeles Angels in Anaheim, Calif.
"Every time we lose a series, we're disappointed. Now we move on, " Boston manager Alex Cora said. "We've got the Phillies for three, (so we will) try to win the series and enjoy the All-Star break."
Richards (4-5, 4.88 ERA) has been up and down through the first half of the season. In his latest outing on Saturday at Oakland, the veteran right-hander snapped a string of four straight starts in which he allowed four or more runs.
Although he did not factor into the decision, Richards kept the Red Sox competitive with five-plus innings of two-run ball. He allowed five hits and three walks while striking out two. The Athletics went on to win 7-6 in 12 innings to snap Boston's eight-game win streak.
Richards has faced the Phillies only once in his career. He tossed seven scoreless innings while allowing five hits and no walks and striking out eight in a 3-0 win as a member of the Angels on May 14, 2014.
Philadelphia has a chance to get above .500 heading into the All-Star break after winning three of four road games against the Chicago Cubs to start the week. The Phillies outscored the Cubs 28-13 in winning the first two games before falling 8-3 on Wednesday, but they bounced back with an 8-0 win Thursday.
Brad Miller hit three homers and knocked in five runs in the series finale.
Philadelphia has won five of its past seven entering the series with Boston.
"I feel (we have momentum)," Phillies manager Joe Girardi said. "You feel it in the dugout, you feel confident with the lineup we're throwing out there every day. There's a little something going."
Vince Velasquez (3-3, 4.50) gets the start for the Phillies as he attempts to bounce back from one of his worst outings of the season.
The right-hander surrendered five runs -- his second most in any start this season -- on a season-high nine hits, with three walks and four strikeouts, over six innings in an 11-1 loss at San Diego on Sunday.
In his prior outing on June 29, Velasquez turned in a gem in a 4-3 win against the Miami Marlins. He allowed only two hits over seven scoreless innings while walking none and matching a season high with seven strikeouts.
Velasquez has had only one other scoreless appearance this season. He struck out three over 1 1/3 innings in relief during Philadelphia's 11-3 home loss to the Red Sox on May 21. Boston took two of the three games at Philadelphia, May 21-23.
In four career appearances (three starts) against the Red Sox, Velasquez is 1-0 with a 4.91 ERA.
--Field Level Media
Phillies
at
Red Sox
Friday, at 7:10 PM EST
Partly Cloudy
According to Forecast.io, it's expected to be 71° F with a 22% chance of rain and 8 MPH wind blowing out in Boston at 7:10 PM EST.
Hourly Forecasts: Weather.com Forecast.io
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Post by Kimmi on Jul 9, 2021 7:09:18 GMT -5
Let's win this series please.
That is all.
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Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on Jul 9, 2021 7:40:37 GMT -5
Red Sox Notebook: Dave Bush considering six-man rotation to reduce workload on starters
Bush: ‘Trying to give everybody a little bit extra rest’
)
By Jason Mastrodonato | jason.mastrodonato@bostonherald.com | Boston Herald
July 9, 2021 at 5:00 a.m.
The Red Sox are considering a six-man rotation to start the second half of the season.
The rotation has been worked hard in the first half, having entered Friday with 462 1/3 innings, eighth-most in MLB. Sox starting pitchers are averaging 88 pitches per start, tied for fifth-most in MLB.
“We’re trying to give everybody a little bit extra rest,” pitching coach Dave Bush said. “We’re coming off 16 or 17 straight right now and we have another 17 or 18 right out of the break. So this is the only spot here in almost a two-month period where we can get guys extra rest, so we’re trying to build in some extra time around the All-Star break.”
Nathan Eovaldi will be pitching in the All-Star Game, so the Sox are making sure they give him a few days to recover from that.
Overall, the Sox rotation ranks 20th in MLB with a 4.40 ERA. Shaking up the rotation to add a sixth man doesn’t seem like the worst idea.
“We’ve considered everything,” Bush said. “I don’t know that we’ve come to a conclusion quite yet. But each thing we would do would have a flip-side to it. If we go to a six-man, that’s one less guy in the bullpen.”
How do the pitchers feel about an extra day of rest between starts?
“Really, I haven’t asked them,” Bush said. “I think their focus is going out on their turn of pitching. If we tell them it’s going to be an extra day because we’re going to slide a starter in there, then that’s what they’ll do. They don’t have a preference. They don’t really care.”
Bush said the argument against a six-man rotation is that it removes one of the guys from the bullpen, although they could just go with a shorter bench.
“We’ve looked at all those pieces,” he said. “We’ve looked at when we think (Chris) Sale might come back, we’ve looked at what we think Tanner (Houck) might offer us, we’ve looked at obviously we’re well past last year’s workload for all the starters. We’re considering what that means and what we think we can get out of them in the next half of the year. So no final answers right now.”
Houck is scheduled to start for Worcester on Friday. If the Red Sox choose to keep him on a five-day schedule and bring him up after the All-Star break, he’d be ready to pitch Monday, July 19, in the series-opener against the Blue Jays in Buffalo.
“When he gets built up to the point we’re comfortable, then we’ll see where the rest of our rotation and bullpen is at and decide what move to make,” Bush said.
Richards staying in rotation
If the Sox want to keep five starters, they could add Houck back into the rotation and send struggling right-hander Garrett Richards to the bullpen.
The 33-year-old was signed to a $10-million deal this year and has a 4.88 ERA and 1.69 WHIP. He has an 8.27 ERA since news leaked of MLB cracking down on the use of foreign substances.
Asked if the team considered moving him to the ‘pen, Bush said he’s been encouraged by Richards’ recent start.
“Yeah it was a tough couple weeks for him, he had bad starts where he was struggling to make adjustments, but he’s moving in the right direction, he’s throwing the ball much better,” Bush said. “He feels a lot more confident about what he’s doing on the mound. There’s no plans right now to make any changes. He’s taking the ball every five or six days all year and will continue to do so right now.”
Fourth pick planning
The Red Sox will have the fourth overall pick in the MLB Draft, which begins on Sunday night.
“Hopefully this is the last time we have the fourth pick,” said Sox director of amateur scouting Paul Toboni. “But no, I think we all view it as a tremendous opportunity. When I say ‘we all,’ I mean our scouting group, more broadly our front office. I think we want to draft a kid that really sets the tone for the rest of the minor leaguers and eventually his fellow teammates in the big leagues.”
He added, “it’s not every year, not every 10 years for us, where you can access a talent like this in this area of the draft.”
The Sox have often tried drafting an undervalued player in the first round, that way they can sign him for below-slot money and use the extra allocated funds to make more bold selections in the later rounds.
“Historically it’s pretty rare that it works in teams’ favors,” Toboni said. “Much of the reason is that it’s incredibly tough to predict who is going to be there later in the draft and then spend your money on those players.”
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Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on Jul 9, 2021 7:44:12 GMT -5
Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies preview: TV schedule, pitching probables, key stories, how to watch (July 9-11)
Today 6:00 AM
By Jason Kates | MassLive
The Red Sox dropped two of three earlier this week to the Los Angeles Angels, moving to 54-34 this season. They return home to close out the first half of their season, entering a three-game series versus Bryce Harper and the Philadelphia Phillies.
Here’s a preview:
Boston Red Sox (54-34) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (42-43) · Fenway Park · Boston, MA
SERIES SCHEDULE (and TV information):
Fri. July 9, 7:10 p.m. ET -- NESN
Sat. July 10, 4:10 p.m. ET -- NESN
Sun. July 11, 1:10 p.m. ET -- NESN
HOW TO WATCH:
Fri. July 9, 7:10 p.m. ET -- NESN (Channel finder: Comcast Xfinity, Verizon Fios, Spectrum/Charter, Optimum/Altice, DIRECTV, Dish, AT&T U verse, fuboTV and Sling) · Live stream: fuboTV, MLB.tv (out of market), ESPN+
Sat. July 10, 4:10 p.m. ET -- NESN (Channel finder: Comcast Xfinity, Verizon Fios, Spectrum/Charter, Optimum/Altice, DIRECTV, Dish, AT&T U verse, fuboTV and Sling) · Live stream: fuboTV, MLB.tv (out of market)
Sun. July 11, 1:10 p.m. ET -- NESN (Channel finder: Comcast Xfinity, Verizon Fios, Spectrum/Charter, Optimum/Altice, DIRECTV, Dish, AT&T U verse, fuboTV and Sling) · Live stream: fuboTV, MLB.tv (out of market)
KNOW YOUR OPPONENT:
The Phillies won their first four-game series away from home since 2017, taking three versus the Chicago Cubs to move within one game of a .500 record at 42-43. They sit four games back of the division-leading Mets, and 7 1/2 games out of a wild card spot.
Against the Cubs, the Phillies put together some of their best offensive performances, scoring 36 runs (13, 15, and 8) in their three victories. A pair of Phillies made the All-Star team, as catcher J.T. Realmuto and starting pitcher Zach Wheeler were both named to the National League squad. First baseman Rhys Hoskins leads the Phillies with 20 home runs and 53 RBIs, while outfielders Andrew McCutchen and Bryce Harper each have 15 homers.
At the plate, the Phillies rank 15th in OPS (.714), 14th in average (.239) and 19th in home runs (99). The story for the second straight year pitching-wise, though, is the Phillies bullpen. In the ninth inning alone, the Phillies have the fifth worst ERA in baseball (4.65). From the seventh inning and beyond, Philadelphia’s team ERA of 4.99 is the third worst.
PITCHING PROBABLES:
Friday, 7:10 p.m. ET -- RHP Garrett Richards (4-5, 4.88 ERA) vs. RHP Vince Velasquez (3-3, 4.50 ERA)
Saturday, 4:10 p.m. ET -- LHP Martin Perez (7-4, 3.89 ERA) vs. LHP Matt Moore (0-1, 5.60 ERA)
Sunday, 1:10 p.m. ET -- RHP Nick Pivetta (7-3, 4.09 ERA) vs. RHP Aaron Nola (6-5, 4.53 ERA)
THREE SOX TO WATCH:
Nick Pivetta
Pivetta gets a chance to head into the All-Star break with a victory over the team that traded him to Boston last season in exchange for relievers Brandon Workman and Heath Hembree. The righty is coming off his best start of the season, picking up a win over the Oakland A’s after pitching seven innings of two-hit ball with 10 strikeouts and only two walks.
Garrett Richards
Richards will be on the mound for the first game of the series versus the Phillies on Friday, looking to improve after his last start in Oakland. In five innings, he allowed two earned runs in five innings on five hits and three walks, holding an opponent to under three runs for the first time since a June 1 start against the Houston Astros.
Kevin Plawecki
Plawecki is set to be activated off the injured list on Friday, taking the spot of Danny Santana, who will most likely be placed on the 10-day IL. Returning from a left hamstring strain, the catcher has played in 26 games this season, batting .254 with a home run and three RBIs.
SERIES NOTES:
• The Red Sox have the most All-Stars of any team in baseball (5). Pitchers Matt Barnes and Nathan Eovaldi, infielders Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers and designated hitter J.D. Martinez will represent the club in Denver on July 13.
• The Red Sox took two of three in their first meeting versus the Phillies this season in May. They also split a pair of games versus the Phillies during last year’s shortened season in August, before splitting a doubleheader in Philadelphia in early September. In 2019, the Red Sox were swept by the Phillies in late August, before completing a sweep of their own in a two-game set in September.
• The Red Sox went 17-10 (.630) in April, 15-11 (.577) in May, and 18-10 (.643) in June. The only other teams to win 15+ games in each of those months were the Athletics, Dodgers, Giants, and Padres.
• The Sox are closing out the first half by playing 19 games in 20 days (6/22-7/11). They just finished up a stretch of 16 consecutive days with a game, going 11-5.
• The Red Sox are 10-2 versus teams from the National League, with a pair of wins over the Phillies, three over the Atlanta Braves, two versus the New York Mets and three against the Miami Marlins.
UP NEXT:
The Red Sox will have three days off for the All-Star break, before kicking off the second half of their season with a four-game set versus the New York Yankees. Here’s whats next:
Mon. July 12 - Wed. July 14 -- ALL-STAR BREAK
Thu. July 15 - Sun. July 18 -- @ Yankees (4)
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Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on Jul 9, 2021 7:48:16 GMT -5
No doubt
Little Joe will be whining or complaining about something
this series
so might as well get this out of the way:
Hey Little Joe
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Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on Jul 9, 2021 8:51:58 GMT -5
There goes my dream
of Santana leaving
Red Sox optioned C Connor Wong to Triple-A Worcester.
Wong went 3-for-11 at the plate in his first stint in the majors. The Red Sox haven't announced a corresponding move, but it will presumably be Kevin Plawecki (hamstring) returning from the injured list.
Jul 9, 2021, 8:47 AM ET
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Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on Jul 9, 2021 11:22:48 GMT -5
Garrett Richards is reinventing himself on the fly for the Red Sox
Richards has changed his pitching arsenal, including introducing a new changeup, while adjusting to MLB's new substance rules.
By Khari Thompson
July 9, 2021 | 11:00 AM
Major League Baseball’s crackdown on pitchers using foreign substances for grip has made life tough on pitchers everywhere since the rules were more stringently enforced on June 15. But arguably no pitcher has struggled more publicly with the changes to the substance rules than Red Sox starter Garrett Richards.
Calling the 10-year veteran’s four starts since the rule changes an “adventure” would be charitable. He’s visibly struggled not just with his command — he’s failed to complete six innings of work since June 15 — but also with his mounting desperation to find himself out of the wilderness.
Even his own teammate Hunter Renfroe came out and said the struggles are “in Garrett’s head more than anything” after his disastrous start against the Tampa Bay Rays on June 23. Dipping his arm in cold water to stop himself from sweating on the mound probably suggests something to that effect.
Richards’s confidence issues have manifested themselves in a constantly shifting pitch array and a lack of belief in the pitches that got him to this point. Here’s a timeline of the Red Sox starter’s evolution over his last few starts, and why his latest outing provides some hope ahead of Friday’s home appearance against the Philadelphia Phillies.
Losing his grip
Since that June 15 start, Richards has seen his spin rates dip for each of his main three pitches (fastball, slider, curveball), according to Baseball Savant. This is notable because he ranks among the league leaders in average fastball and curveball spin rates, which affects the perceived velocity of his pitches in the eyes of hitters.
While his manager doesn’t buy that spin rate is his biggest problem, it can’t be doubted that Richards hasn’t been fooling anyone with anything he throws. Baseball Savant places the Red Sox pitcher in the bottom-tenth percentile among MLB pitchers in average exit velocity allowed, percentage of hard hit balls surrendered, and expected batting average on contact.
He’s also struggled to generate swings and misses, sitting at just the 15th percentile league-wide in that stat. Since June 15, Richards’s percentage of swinging strikes earned sits well below his season average while throwing far more pitches in the strike zone than usual.
His apparent grip problems have also led to some wild discrepancies in his pitch usage each game as he tries to figure things out.
On June 16 – the first start after the rule changes – Richards completely abandoned his curveball, only throwing his fastball (76.2 percent of pitches) and slider (23.8 percent).
His next start on June 23 saw him rely on the curveball (20.4 percent) more than the slider, but it seemed like nothing he threw was effective in his brutal outing against the Rays. For instance, the Rays only swung and missed twice at Richards’s 54 pitches that day – neither of those whiffs came against a breaking ball.
With his feel for breaking pitches failing him, Richards then heavily used a changeup he’d never thrown before and a very slow curveball — about nine miles per hour slower than his average curveball velocity for the year — against the Royals on June 28. Oddly enough, it was his most effective pitch that day, and his curveball and slider command improved over the previous week as well. But his fastball was still far from crisp.
In short, Richards has been all over the place for the last month in a way you don’t want to see from a guy taking the ball every fifth day.
Reasons for hope
But his last start on July 3 against the Atlanta Braves showed he might slowly be gaining some comfort.
His fastball, slider, and curveball each posted the best runs above average per 100 pitches since the rule changes, according to FanGraphs. Though Richards earned a no-decision over his five innings pitched, he also posted his highest game score in a month of action.
He struggled more with his changeup against the Braves, which isn’t shocking given that he invented it about a week ago. But the slightly resurgent effectiveness and control of his top three pitches is arguably much more important.
Of course, it’s impossible to know if that performance will carry over to Friday. After all, very little about Richards has been consistent from outing to outing in the last month.
Also, his seemingly increased comfort last week still didn’t translate into him missing bats, though the Braves didn’t generate much hard contact off him in spite of that.
The Red Sox can only hope Friday’s start can give Richards some positive momentum heading into the All-Star break and that he comes out of the hiatus with a better understanding of how to attack hitters under the new substance rules.
After all, how much weirder can the Garrett Richards experience get?
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Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on Jul 9, 2021 13:19:03 GMT -5
Chris Cotillo
@chriscotillo
·
52m
Horrible weather day in Boston but looks like it's going to clear up in a major way before first pitch at 7:10 p.m.
As of now, Sox-Phillies is on -- and there's an expectation that they will play.
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Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on Jul 9, 2021 13:20:23 GMT -5
Bill Koch
@billkoch25
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51m
Soggy outfield and localized street/highway flooding are likely to be the biggest inconveniences. Rain is already moving out of the Rhode Island area, and Elsa is tracking quickly to the northeast.
I'd say #RedSox-Phillies is a go for tonight.
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Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on Jul 9, 2021 13:28:25 GMT -5
After a one-run loss, a question: What makes these Red Sox so good in close games?
Boston is 17-9 (.654) in one-run games.
By Jon Couture
July 8, 2021
Most everything felt normal about Wednesday’s Red Sox getaway game against the Angels. Right up until they failed to win it.
LA taking a 2-0 lead thanks largely to bloop singles certainly did. Eduardo Rodriguez has been one of the year’s least lucky pitchers, his expected ERA based on the amount and quality of contact he’s given up this year (3.40) more than two runs better than his actual ERA (5.52).
“A grinder,” he described his completed first half to reporters on Wednesday. “Every start, just go out there and grind, grind, grind.”
Watching Boston tie the game via their own lucky breaks certainly fits the profile of a team who’s won more than half their games (28 of 54) coming from behind. As did the way they hung around after the Angels went back-to-back in their half of the fifth, twice pulling back within one and right there until Raisel Iglesias blew through them in the ninth.
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“We got burned by the home runs,” manager Alex Cora told reporters, later noting that sixth-inning double play that wasn’t same as you probably did.
And thus a West Coast trip the Sox came within sight of sweeping ended 3-3, their series in Anaheim only not an Angels sweep thanks to the grace of the baseball gods. Shohei Ohtani, who beat them both ways on Tuesday and cracked his 32nd home run on Wednesday, hit a pedestrian Adam Ottavino slider more than good enough to tie Monday’s game.
“It kind of worked out,” Ottavino told reporters after a shifted Christian Arroyo grabbed it and recorded the final out.
Put that on the season DVDs, already.
Now looking back at the Fourth of July, we’re still trying to figure out how we got here. The Red Sox are 54-34, meaning they could play a .500 second half and probably still cruise into October.
The hows are myriad, but the narrative thread is clear: All those comebacks. Boston is 17-9 (.654) in one-run games and 27-15 (.643) in one- or two-run affairs.
The latter mark is best in the majors, and hints at the overperformance they’ve gotten out of their bullpen. Matt Barnes is an All-Star, and Ottavino, Josh Taylor, Darwinzon Hernandez, Hirokazu Sawamura, and Garrett Whitlock all have sub-3.00 ERAs. It also hints at Cora’s influence, the competitive fire that burned too bright in Houston still there following his year-long exile from the sport that’s defined his life.
“Keeps it loose, keeps it fun, but also knows how to get on the guys and spark us,” Alex Verdugo told The Athletic last month, describing Cora’s managerial style. “Just kind of get that fire back, like, ‘Hey, we’ve been lackadaisical, let’s turn it back on. It starts from inning 1, not the sixth inning.’ ”
But let’s not go overboard: Barely .500 Seattle (19-8) has a better one-run record than the playoff-tracking Astros (10-8), Dodgers (11-16), White Sox (10-11), Padres (12-13), and Rays (11-14). They’re 10-1 in extra innings less because of better execution than the bounce of a few balls.
Such an oddball is, frankly, normal. The 2019 Giants won just 77 games, but more than 70 percent (38-16) of their one-run decisions. The 2015 Blue Jays made the ALCS with the worst one-run record in MLB. The 2007 Red Sox won 96 going 22-28 in them, then won their only two of the playoffs to sweep the World Series.
In and of itself, all the close victories don’t make the 2021 Red Sox special. Of their 17 one-run wins, three came as rescues of Matt Barnes blown saves last month, and a fourth was a four-run game against Seattle in April that Barnes turned into a one-run affair.
Another three came just on this West Coast swing: Monday against the Angels, plus Kiké Hernández’s double play on Friday and Nick Pivetta’s latest gem on Sunday. (Pivetta has started six of their one-run wins and two of the losses, including his 100-pitch no-hitter in Tampa.)
However, as The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal noted when he sniffed around some underlying Red Sox stats, banked wins are banked no matter how they got there. And we’ve heard the confidence blasting from these Red Sox with every close game they pull out. They’ve earned that, up and down the lineup card.
Remember the three comebacks against the Rays on April 6? The game-saving Verdugo performance in Minnesota? Bobby Dalbec’s saving blast when the Angels were in Boston? Arroyo’s run of clutch home runs?
Never mind J.D. Martinez in Dunedin, Xander Bogaerts coming through twice at Yankee Stadium, or a season-worth of big hits from Rafael Devers, whose 1.083 OPS with runners in scoring position trails only Vlad Guerrero Jr., Ohtani, and Houston’s Yordan Alvarez in the AL. (Martinez, for the record, is fifth at 1.058.)
They believe losing games like Wednesday’s is the exception. They believe they’ll get more of the breaks than they won’t. And they believe Chris Sale is coming to supplement a pitching staff that’s outperformed just about every expectation.
Belief is a hard thing to quantify, but after a year where it lacked in just about every way, it can’t be overstated. And it can’t be dismissed.
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Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on Jul 9, 2021 13:30:24 GMT -5
Red Sox vs. Phillies Series Preview
A look at the last series before the All-Star Break
By Matt_Collins@MattRyCollins Jul 9, 2021, 3:01pm EDT
The opponent in one sentence
The Phillies have been all over the place this year and have continued finding new and creative ways to lose, but amid all that they are still hovering around .500 and in second place in their division.
Record
42-43
Head-to-head record
Red Sox 2, Phillies 3
Trend
Up. The Phillies seemed to be hitting their rock bottom in the middle of June, but since then they have recovered and at least put themselves in a position to wait out the month of July before deciding their direction. They’ve earned at least a split in each of their last four series, and overall they’ve won five of their last seven.
Pitching Matchups
7/9: Garrett Richards vs. Vince Velasquez, 7:10 PM ET
The most interesting in the Red Sox rotation right now could possibly be Richards, which is certainly not the same as saying the best. On the one hand, the stuff is still markedly down since the banishment of sticky stuff, even more so than most pitchers around the league. On the other hand, he’s leaned on a little bit of a different approach, and he’s had some solid outings. His last time out was pretty good and he finished out the start before that with a few good innings. Personally, I’m still holding my breath every time the veteran comes to the mound, because the command is still a little rough and without his best stuff he’s liable to be hit around. But he keeps getting to the precipice of being tossed aside before turning things around long enough to buy him a few more chances. It’s a cycle, and he appears to be in the turning things around portion of it right now.
Velasquez was once a fairly well-regarded prospect with big-time stuff, but he’s never really been able to put things together as a starting pitcher. The Phillies are continuing to use him in that role, however, at least partially out of need. And this year, well, he’s been mediocre as usual. The potential is always there for him to shut down any lineup, and he’s continuing to strike out opponents at a nice clip this year. Despite that, the ERA is sitting in the mid-4.00’s, and his walk rate is still much too high. Look for the Red Sox to be patient early and force him to come back into the zone. Boston saw him out of the bullpen earlier this year, striking out three times in 1 1⁄3 scoreless innings. Velasquez will feature a fastball that sits in the 92-95 range along with a curveball, changeup, and slider.
7/10: Martín Pérez vs. Matt Moore, 4:10 PM ET
Pérez is in the midst of yet another strong run in this continually surprising campaign, allowing one or fewer earned runs in three of his last four starts, with the other seeing two earned runs coming against him. The southpaw has a 1.86 ERA during this little run, though it’s a little hard to see how it’s happening. Neither his strikeout nor walk rates seem great, and he’s giving up a ton of hits. Somehow, he continues to work around trouble, and Alex Cora has done a very good job at knowing when to pull his back-end starter from games. Pérez has not recorded more than 16 outs in a game since June 3, and with the All-Star break just a day away after this game, I’d expect that trend to continue here as well. Against the Phillies back in May, Pérez allowed three runs over six innings of work.
It seems crazy to think about now, but about a decade ago Moore was right alongside Mike Trout and now-teammate Bryce Harper in a triumvirate of elite prospects coming of age at the same time. The lefty’s career has not progressed the way things have for the other two, instead being something of a journeyman over the last few years. This is his first with the Phillies, and he’s had a tough time on the season splitting duties between the rotation and bullpen. He just doesn’t have the stuff to make up for what he lacks in command, and it shows with his 5.60 ERA. That said, he has allow two runs over nine innings in his last two starts, so he does come in on a bit of a roll. Moore will feature a low-90s fastball to go with a changeup and a curveball.
7/11: Nick Pivetta vs. Aaron Nola, 1:10 PM ET
Pivetta didn’t get a chance to pitch against his former team earlier this year when these two squads faced off, but he’ll get his chance at revenge here on Sunday in the final game before the All-Star break. The righty has certainly looked better than he did in his last few seasons in Philly, but there have still been some inconsistencies. Two starts ago, he allowed three home runs to the Royals — the second time in June he had an outing that featured at least three balls leaving the park — but then last time out he tossed seven shutout innings in Oakland with 10 strikeouts and only two walks. Overall it’s been a very encouraging season, and there would be no better way for him to finish off this first half than by sticking it to the team that basically gave up on him.
On the other side, the Red Sox are going up against a guy who should be a co-ace on this Phillies staff, though the numbers don’t reflect that at the moment. A former top 10 pick, the righty came into this season as one of the most consistent pitchers in the game, but he's having a tough start to his 2021, at least by the results. Nola is currently sitting with a 4.53 ERA that is fairly significantly worse than league-average, but his 3.47 FIP tells a much different story. Still, the hits are adding up and he’s going through his worst stretch of the season right now. Over his last four starts, he has pitched to an 8.35 ERA despite striking out 32 and walking only five over 18 1⁄3 innings. The Red Sox should be looking to jump on pitches over the middle of the plate early and often. They did a solid job of that last time out, scoring five runs (four earned) over five innings despite striking out nine times and walking only once. Nola will offer a pair of low-90s fastballs to go with a changeup and a curveball.
Old Friends
None.
Notable Position Players
Bryce Harper is the face of this Phillies franchise after signing his monster contract a couple winters ago, and he’s once again having a stellar season at the plate. Thanks to elite power and patience, he has a 144 wRC+ that, for context, is just a shade behind Xander Bogaerts and a shade ahead of Rafael Devers and J.D. Martinez.
J.T. Realmuto got a big contract himself last winter, re-signing in Philly, and he’s keeping up his end of the deal with another nice season. He’s putting up a 122 wRC+, which for a catcher who can play defense like him is just about as good as it gets.
Andrew McCutchen is having something of a renaissance of sorts this season after a disappointing 2020 and missed time in 2019. He’s being hurt by a low BABIP, but his patience and power are making up for it.
Rhys Hoskins will swing and miss a bunch and not really hit many singles, but the man is a threat to go deep each and every time he steps to the dish.
Jean Segura hits atop this Phillies lineup and he’s had a good year with his contact-oriented approach being combined with a high BABIP.
Alec Bohm came into the year with some big expectations after a strong showing in 2020, but the power hasn’t been there and his contributions have been near-nothing.
Didi Gregorius is struggling to capture some of the magic from his Yankees days this year, striking out a bit more than is typical for him and combining that with poor batted ball luck.
Odúbel Herrera was suspended back in 2019 for a domestic violence incident in which he allegedly assaulted his girlfriend, but he’s back in the Phillies lineup now, much to the dismay of many of their fans. On the field, he’s been struggling to get things going lately.
Bullpen Snapshot
José Alvarado is a name many likely remember from his days with the Rays, but he’s taken a late-inning role with the Phillies this year after an offseason trade last winter. His stuff from the left side is still about as good as it gets, but his control issues will get him into trouble.
Archie Bradley looked like one of steals of the offseason, but while he’s put up solid results this year the peripherals look like a guy who is about to fall off a cliff in terms of production.
Ranger Suárez has been dominant this season, pitching to an ERA under 1.00 thanks to solid stuff and an elite ability to induce ground balls.
Injuries
Seranthony Dominguez underwent Tommy John surgery about a year ago, and it’s still not clear when, or even if, he’ll be pitching this season.
Sam Coonrod just recently went down with some forearm issues, but the hope is he’ll be back in a few weeks.
Matt Joyce hit the injured list in mid-June with some back issues, and there hasn’t been much word on him since.
Roman Quinn ruptured his Achilles tendon at the end of May, and the injury will keep him off the field the rest of the year.
JoJo Romero underwent Tommy John surgery earlier this season and will miss the rest of the year.
Chase Anderson was taken off the COVID list in early June, but then put back on a couple days later and has been there since. It’s not totally clear what’s going on here.
Weather Forecast
Tropical Storm Elsa is coming through Boston as we speak, but it does look like it should taper off enough by game time to get through Friday’s game. There is also rain in the forecast on Saturday, but again it seems as though there should be no issues. Sunday looks perfect.
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