|
Post by scrappyunderdog on May 14, 2021 8:22:15 GMT -5
Peter Gammons @pgammo · 2h Mike Trout is having arguably the best season of his HOF career, and his 10.9 launch angle is the lowest of his career Okay, I'll bite. Trout's BABIP is .484 against a career .349, and his HR/FB are 34.8% against a career 21.7% and a 4-year trend of maybe 24.1%. What I'd be looking at are his Ks. He is on pace for 607/600 ABs. That's really high for him. His K/W is weak and his GB/FB has worsened. Not to say he isn't still an outstanding player, but his hot start might be a mirage.
|
|
|
Post by scrappyunderdog on May 14, 2021 8:47:24 GMT -5
Michael Chavis has proven he is part of the solutionBy Rob Bradford Cool. He has 18 PAs, with a 6/0 K/W, but that is apparently proof. I obviously hope he is right, but when someone projects to a 200/0 K/W over a full season, excuse for being dubious.
|
|
|
Post by scrappyunderdog on May 14, 2021 8:58:10 GMT -5
This is more or less what Richards said when talking about Bush. It's one thing knowing what makes the most sense. It is an entirely different matter to translate that into effective action. Pivetta, heck everyone knows what he has to focus on cutting down on the free passes one of these days he is gonna get smacked by it.He's pitching okay, but that's about it. The same analysis that goes for hitters, goes for Pivetta. His BABIP is .244 against a career .318, and his HR/FB is 4.8% against a career 17.2%. Once those stats start to level out, so will his ERA. I'm still happy with him, because a mediocre SP at minimum wage is a heck of an asset. But I am betting his final ERA will be closer to 4.25-4.50, and even that might be optimistic. His current 1.59 K/W is unsurviveable.
|
|
|
Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on May 14, 2021 9:23:10 GMT -5
Red Sox Notes @soxnotes · 36m AL leaders in extra-base hits:
1. Shohei Ohtani (LAA) – 21 T2. Xander Bogaerts (BOS) – 20 T2. Rafael Devers (BOS) – 20 T2. J.D. Martinez (BOS) – 20
This is only the third time the Sox have had 3 players record 20+ XBH in the team’s first 40 games (also 2000 & 2016).
|
|
|
Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on May 14, 2021 9:49:31 GMT -5
High Heat Stats @highheatstats 1m Xander Bogaerts, last 162 games for the @redsox 43 doubles, 35 homers 103 RBI, 101 runs scored 59 walks, 119 strikeouts .323 batting average .383 on-base percentage .560 slugging percentage 11/12 stolen bases
|
|
|
Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on May 14, 2021 9:58:28 GMT -5
With games like Thursday’s, the Red Sox keep making their start seem a little less surprising How are they doing it? And will they keep doing it?
By Jon Couture May 14, 2021 | 10:44 AM
COMMENTARY
How are they doing it? And will they keep doing it? In the annual baseball marathon, you’re either asking this because your team’s better than you thought, or because they’re worse.
As the quarter pole nears for the Red Sox, nice to be on the happy side of the ledger again.
On Thursday afternoon in Detroit, Andrew Benintendi struck out swinging on a slider in the dirt, his Royals coming up a run shy in their 11th straight loss. Not that he’s been the problem: Your former left fielder is hitting .375/.404/.521 with 18 hits in 12 May games, a run that began with a two-homer game that remains the last Kansas City victory.
Three of the five best teams in baseball at the end of play on May 1 were Benintendi’s Royals (an MLB-best 16-9), the Red Sox, and San Francisco. All elicited the same response: Well, when’s this going to blow over? It usually doesn’t happen as dramatically as it’s happened with Kansas City, but the hindsight is clear: Pegged a 70-odd win club, they had a hot April despite scoring just six more runs than they allowed.
The other two, both .500 clubs that are third banana (at best) in their divisions, persist. The Giants have baseball’s oldest lineup, but it’s been enough thanks to three 30-something pitchers — Alex Wood, Kevin Gausman, and Anthony DeSclafani — with sub-2.20 ERAs despite one collective All-Star appearance.
San Francisco hasn’t met the Dodgers yet (the same as the Red Sox haven’t met the Yankees), they’ve split nine games with the Padres, and they’ve clobbered everyone else. Can it last? Doesn’t feel like it, but being halfway to the 18 games over .500 a team needs for 90 wins sure beats the alternative.
Did the Red Sox starting this week with 4, 4, and 5 hits on consecutive days feel like some kind of reckoning, given the last two came against Oakland to begin a run of better competition? In the time it took to formulate the argument, they matched those 13 hits in six innings Thursday.
Against Sean Manaea, who’d been as good as anyone his prior six starts. With seven balls in the first three innings hit at least 106 mph, which is a full-on clobbering, plus Michael Chavis making the rare successful challenge of well-armed outfielder Ramón Laureano.
How have they gotten here? The offense has been gangbusters, but that was largely expected; as many have noted, even last year’s team hit carrying J.D. Martinez. The starting pitching?
Who could ask for more? Garrett Richards has a 2.16 ERA in his last four starts, allowing just six runs off 24 hits in 25 innings. (He allowed eight baserunners in his six shutout innings Thursday.) Nick Pivetta is 5-0 with a 3.19 ERA despite, as the Globe’s Alex Speier points out, mediocre strikeout numbers and a bottom-five walk rate.
The bullpen has slipped considerably since the calendar flipped. Neither Darwinzon Hernandez nor Matt Andriese have a clean inning in four tries each this month, and Garrett Whitlock’s turned mortal, though he was better Thursday in a low-leverage spot after six days off.
The starters, however, are the story. Twenty-eight times in 39 games entering Friday, Alex Cora’s starter has departed either with a lead or in a tie game. Of the 11 deficits, five came from the nine combined starts by Martín Pérez and Tanner Houck, and just once was the deficit larger than three runs: April 24 against Seattle, when Nate Eovaldi built a five-run hole.
That’s a chance to win about every game, and thus a complete turnaround from 2020’s epic fail. It’s a delivery on a promise heard up and down the rotation this spring — “Don’t sleep on us,” Rodriguez warned in mid-February. It’s a testament to Christian Vázquez, who’s delivering on the words I wrote earlier this year when I said he was closer to the best catcher in baseball than you probably think.
“An underrated part of their success,” in the words of national baseball writer Ken Rosenthal, noting the 30-year-old clutch hitting as much as stewarding a better-than-most-thought rotation.
And so, the questions: How are they doing it? And will they keep doing it?
They’re 23-16. A 95-win pace. They could play .500 baseball from here on out and end up around the mid-80 wins most of us thought they were headed.
The question, really, is whose performance feels unsustainable? Pivetta, sure, but he’s also a bottom-of-the-rotation starter, and who could be breaking out at 28 in a new city. Guys like Eovaldi, Rodriguez, and Richards, the question is more sustained health than performance.
Not that they don’t have their own issues, coming off a shortened season, that’s a baseball-wide issue in 2021.
Based on advanced hit data, Rafael Devers is actually underperforming the expected. Bobby Dalbec has a tiny sample size, but he’s more than a .200 hitter, even if it’s always going to be feast-or-famine and it’s not by much.
This figures to be a clarifying stretch, beyond simply pounding out another month of the calendar. After this weekend against the Angels, as dreary a team with two legitimate MVP candidates as you’ll see, come Toronto, Philadelphia, Atlanta, Miami, Houston, and — at last — the Yankees. Playoff contenders almost all, even if some are off to less-than-stellar starts.
By the time Andrew Benintendi plays another game in Boston, they’ll be just about at the halfway point — Game 81, as currently scheduled, is the last day of June. Seems like we know about where the Royals will be by then.
The Red Sox? I still could believe just about anywhere. But with each passing day, and each successive answer like Thursday’s, my gaze keeps glancing a little higher.
|
|
|
Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on May 14, 2021 11:17:16 GMT -5
Red Sox vs. Angels Series Preview
A look to the weekend matchup against two of the league’s marquee players. By Matt_Collins@MattRyCollins May 14, 2021, 12:01pm EDT
SB Nation Blog
Halos Heaven The opponent in one sentence
The Angels have two of the biggest stars in baseball, but they continue to struggle translating that into wins as a league-worst pitching staff is holding them below .500. Record
16-20 Head-to-head record
0-0 Trend
Neutral. The Angels have been a little bit better of late after releasing Albert Pujols and giving Jared Walsh a little bit of a bigger role. They have lost their last two, but before that they won three of four. Of course, immediately before that they lost five in a row, so it’s been more down than up if you expand the sample a bit. Pitching Matchups
5/14: Nick Pivetta vs. Griffin Canning, 7:10 PM ET (MLB Network for out-of-market)
Of all of the surprises on the Red Sox roster so far this year, Pivetta has to top the list. The righty hadn’t looked for a major-league quality starter for the last few years, never mind a good major-league starter. This year, however, the results at least have been phenomenal as the righty is pitching to a 3.19 ERA with nearly a strikeout per inning. The issue is that he’s also walking more than five per nine innings, a rate that seems unsustainable alongside the good results. I would point out that he is missing more barrels which may be a tradeoff that is worth it, but limiting the walks at least a bit more will be necessary to keep up something resembling this run. Pivetta is also looking to continue a win streak that has lasted three starts heading into this one.
Canning has had an encouraging start to his big-league career, putting up solid seasons in each of the last two years, albeit amid some injury issues and not in full seasons. The start to his 2021 has been a bit rougher. Through five starts plus one relief appearance, he’s pitching to a 5.19 ERA. The righty is missing a ton of bats so expect to see some strikeouts on Friday, but command has been an issue as he’s giving up a ton of home runs. That said, he’s not really giving up too much hard contact, so there’s a chance there is some regression in a positive direction heading his way. To that end, he’s allowed just one earned run (two runs total) over his last two innings, so don’t be fooled by the ERA. Canning will throw a mid-90s fastball along with a slider, a changeup, and the occasional curveball.
5/15: Martín Pérez vs. Dylan Bundy, 4:10 PM ET
Pérez is settling in to be exactly what the team needs him to be, which is a guy who will take the ball every five days and keep the team in games. He hit a bit of a snag in the back half of April, but his first two starts in May have been good as he’s pitched at least five innings in each. He probably should have gone deeper in his last outing against the Orioles, but the Red Sox have a plan with him and they are sticking to it. Over his last two starts he’s allowed three earned runs (four total) with 10 strikeouts and three walks. This will be a bit more of a test against this Angels lineup, but he’s been trending in the right direction at the moment.
After a strong season in the shortened 2020 campaign, Bundy appeared to be just the latest Orioles castoff to thrive in a rotation somewhere else. This year has taken that talk down a bit, though, as the righty has an ERA over 5.00 to start off the 2021 schedule. As with Canning, though, the results may not be reflective of his actual talent this year and there looks like there should be a decent chance he turns it around. None of his peripherals stand out as great on their own, but they’re all at least solid-to-good, and his FIP a run and a half better than the ERA. That said, he got roughed up by the Dodgers his last time out, allowing six runs without getting through the fourth. Bundy will feature a low-90s fastball to go with a slider, changeup, curveball, and sinker.
5/16: Nathan Eovaldi vs. José Quintana, 1:10 PM ET (MLB Network for out-of-market)
Eovaldi came into his last start against the A’s struggling a but, having been hit around some in three of his previous four outings. He’s still yet to allow a homer this year, which is incredible given the offensive environment around the league, but the hits added up in those starts and got his ERA on the rise. But earlier this week he reeled it in with a one-run performance against the A’s to get him back on track. There’s a lot of power in this Angels lineup so the homer-less streak may be in jeopardy, but he’s more concerned about the wins than the homers.
Quintana was a popular free agent target for some Red Sox fans last winter, including me. He looked like a relatively safe option, though one without a ton of upside. It’s been a disaster of a season for the lefty, though. His ERA currently sits at an even 9.00, and while he's missing way more bats than ever before he’s also walking pretty close to one batter per inning. He’s also getting hit very hard when he doesn’t get the strikeout, which is a tough road to success. The veteran was a bit better his last time out with just one run allowed, but he also walked five over four innings of work. Quintana will throw a low-90s fastball along with a curveball, a sinker and a changeup. Old Friends
José Iglesias came up around the same time as Xander Bogaerts at shortstop, and the Red Sox wisely chose Bogaerts, sending Iglesias out in the trade that brought Jake Peavy to Boston in 2013. Iglesias has put together a solid career, though, keeping his head above water at the plate while playing all-world defense at shortstop.
Noé Ramirez had spent a few years as an up-and-down reliever in Boston before being claimed off waivers by the Angels. He spent a very brief amount of time with the Reds before getting back to LA. Notable Position Players
Mike Trout is simply the best player in baseball and one of the very best to ever play. And somehow, he just keeps getting better as this may be his best season yet. So far this season he’s hitting .355/.477/.673 for a bananas 216 wRC+. He’s ridiculous, and there are no words to do his talent justice.
Shohei Ohtani is not going to pitch this weekend, but we’ll see him at the plate. His still an incredible hitter with some of the best power in all of baseball, boasting a .316 Isolated Power (SLG - AVG) so far this season. He does get a bit aggressive at times, though, so look for the Red Sox to try and get him to swing at some bad pitches.
Jared Walsh has taken on a bigger role this year after a breakout in 2020, and he is the owner of a strong 171 wRC+ thanks to big power numbers and good patience.
David Fletcher is a throwback player, as he doesn’t walk a ton and has virtually no power, but he puts everything in play, and often for hits.
Justin Upton isn’t the hitter he once was and will strikeout a bit more than you want, but he can also punish mistakes every time he enters the box.
Iglesias is struggling at the plate this year after a strong 2020, as the quality of contact just hasn’t been there.
Taylor Ward hasn’t played much this year but when he has he’s been hitting for power.
Jose Rojas is struggling a little in just about every area, which in combination leads to a rough overall line.
Drew Butera has done most of the catching recently, though he doesn’t provide much offense. Kurt Suzuki should get some time behind the plate as well. Bullpen Snapshot
Raisel Iglesias came to LA essentially for free this winter (they traded Ramirez, who as noted above is now back with the Angels), but he’s struggled a bit in the closer role as the home run ball has bitten him a few too many times early in the year.
Mike Mayers has been good out of the setup role, though he’s been bitten by the homer bug as well.
Tony Watson has a minuscule ERA below 1.00, but he isn’t doing it the traditional way as he’s hardly missing any bats. Injuries
Anthony Rendon has been on the injured list dealing with a little bit of a knee issue, but he could end up being back for this series which would be a big addition to this Angels lineup.
Alex Cobb hit the IL with some bliser issues earlier this month, and while he won’t pitch this weekend he should be back soon.
Junior Guerra strained his groin earlier this week and his schedule to return is still unclear.
Max Stassi is dealing with some concussion issues but he could be back this weekend to take over the catching duties.
Dexter Fowler tore his ACL early in the season and will miss the rest of the year.
Franklin Barreto has been dealing with an arm issue since spring and now he’s just recently undergoing Tommy John surgery.
Luke Bard is going to be out for the entire season after undergoing hip surgery.
Chris Rodriguez recently suffered a shoulder injury, but the tests have come back looking okay so he shouldn’t miss too much time. Weather Forecast
It should be an interesting weekend weather-wise, as there are some showers forecasted around game time for all three games, but it doesn’t look like it’ll be enough to cause cancellations. There may be some annoying showers here and there and perhaps a delay or two, but I think they’ll get all three games in.
|
|
|
Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on May 14, 2021 12:41:02 GMT -5
Bill Koch @billkoch25 · 22m Bobby Dalbec joining us on Zoom. #RedSox
Dalbec on his role/external expectations in 2020 vs. 2021 -- 'It's a little bit different this year as opposed to last year.' #RedSox
Dalbec on playing against Mike Trout -- 'It's Mike Trout. He's Mike Trout. It's pretty cool. I've heard he's an awesome dude. He and (Garrett) Richards are super tight.' #RedSox
Dalbec, a two-way player at Arizona, on Shohei Ohtani -- 'Dude is a special player. Special talent.' #RedSox
Dalbec -- 'It's a lot to handle. He's hitting middle of the lineup and trying to go 6-7 innings every night in the major leagues. That's pretty crazy.' #RedSox
Dalbec -- 'I miss the competitive aspect of pitching, not necessarily everything else that comes along with it.' #RedSox
Dalbec on hitting against lefties/righties -- 'To me it's the same puzzle. I've never really felt righties have given me a lot of trouble. Obviously the splits say differently this year.' #RedSox
Dalbec on his role/external expectations in 2020 vs. 2021 -- 'It's a little bit different this year as opposed to last year.' #RedSox
|
|
|
Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on May 14, 2021 12:42:22 GMT -5
Christopher Smith @smittyonmlb · 4m I thought the Angels were having a good year. I just checked their record and they are 16-20. I'd love to watch Trout and Ohtani in the postseason, but are the Angels ever going to make it there? Very disappointing organization for the past seven or more years.
Angels rank last in the majors in starter ERA (5.20) and 27th in reliever ERA (5.27). They rank 11th in the majors in runs (164), fourth in batting average (.254), 12th in on-base percentage (.313) and fifth in slugging percentage (.419).
|
|
|
Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on May 14, 2021 13:12:38 GMT -5
Game 40: Angels at Red Sox lineups and notesBy Andrew Mahoney Globe Staff,Updated May 14, 2021, 10:38 a.m. After scoring just four runs in their previous three games, the Red Sox came alive last night, pounding out an 8-1 win over Oakland to snap a three-game losing streak and avoid a sweep. Next up is another AL West foe as the Los Angeles Angels, winners of just three of their last 11 games, are in town for a three-game series. Nick Pivetta, following a one-day stint on the COVID-19 injured list while recovering from his second shot, will be on the mound for the Red Sox. Related: He’s undefeated, precise, and confident. It’s clear — letting Nick Pivetta be himself is paying off big for Red Sox Lineups ANGELS (16-20):1. David Fletcher (R) 2B 2. Shohei Ohtani (L) DH 3. Mike Trout (R) CF 4. Anthony Rendon (R) 3B 5. Jared Walsh (L) 1B 6. Justin Upton (R) LF 7. Jose Iglesias (R) SS 8. Taylor Ward (R) RF 9. Drew Butera (R) C Pitching: RHP Griffin Canning (3-2, 5.19 ERA) RED SOX (23-16): 1. Michael Chavis (R) 2B 2. Alex Verdugo (L) CF 3. J.D. Martinez (R) LF 4. Xander Bogaerts (R) SS 5. Rafael Devers (L) DH 6. Christian Vazquez (R) C 7. Marwin Gonzalez (S) 3B 8. Hunter Renfroe (R) RF 9. Bobby Dalbec (R) 1B Pitching: RHP Nick Pivetta (5-0, 3.19 ERA) Time: 7:10 p.m. TV, radio: NESN, WEEI-FM 93.7 Angels vs. Pivetta: Gosselin 0-3, Iglesias 0-2, Jay 1-1, Lagares 1-5, Suzuki 4-12. Red Sox vs. Canning: Verdugo 0-2. Stat of the day: The Red Sox lead the majors with 11 outfield assists this season. Colorado is next with nine. Notes: Pivetta has won three straight starts and has allowed three runs or fewer in six of his seven starts this season. He has never faced the Angels … Bobby Dalbec is batting .351 with an .990 OPS vs. lefties in 2021 (13-for-37, two doubles, a triple, two home runs, and a walk) … Hunter Renfroe is batting .306 (15-for-49) with an .857 OPS, three doubles, three home runs, and 9 RBI in 12 games in May … In his last two starts, Canning allowed just two runs and struck out 13 over 11 innings. He has never faced the Red Sox. Song of the Day: Barney Bentall and The Legendary Hearts "Do Ya?"www.youtube.com/watch?v=IkskyqyadVo
|
|
|
Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on May 14, 2021 14:04:08 GMT -5
Bill Koch @billkoch25 · 35m #RedSox game notes announce Nick Pivetta as tonight's starting pitcher against the Angels. Full lineup still to come.
Martin Perez on Saturday, Nathan Eovaldi on Sunday, scheduled day off on Monday.
|
|
|
Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on May 14, 2021 14:40:55 GMT -5
Bill Koch @billkoch25 · 24m Alex Cora joining us on Zoom. #RedSox
Cora making no apologies for benching Cordero against a right-hander. Said the #RedSox 'have to go with the lineup that maximizes our personnel.'
Cora on Duran's home run Thursday -- 'He's a strong individual. He's that strong.'
'He's a big kid. It just so happens he's very fast. He's doing a good job down there.' #RedSox
|
|
|
Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on May 14, 2021 14:42:10 GMT -5
Bill Koch @billkoch25 · 18m Cora on Duran developing at Triple-A -- 'There's an advantage in him getting at-bats and playing every day and going out there and playing defense.' #RedSox
Cora on Trout -- 'He is that good offensively. He is that good. I know he works hard on his defense. He wants to be better.'
'The fact that he's willing to put in the work to get better is amazing.' #RedSox
Cora said the #RedSox rotation would stay on turn through the upcoming off days. Extra rest. Not skipping any starters or shuffling.
Cora on Dalbec -- 'The hope is to get him going against righties. This weekend most likely he'll play the three days.' #RedSox
|
|
|
Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on May 14, 2021 14:43:09 GMT -5
Bill Koch @billkoch25 · 15m Cora said Kiké Hernandez (right hamstring) is likely to play Saturday and Sunday at Worcester as part of a rehab assignment. #RedSox
Cora on Renfroe -- 'The way he plays right field is a plus.'
'We're very pleased with the way his at-bats are going. We'll be versatile.' #RedSox
Cora said Christian Arroyo (left hand contusion) will take soft toss today and could take batting practice on Saturday. Progress through that will determine a rehab assignment. #RedSox
|
|
|
Post by CP_Jon_GoSox on May 14, 2021 14:47:36 GMT -5
Bill Koch @billkoch25 · 30m Replying to @billkoch25 On any pitch limits for Nick Pivetta -- 'We do believe he's at full strength.' #RedSox
Cora on Trout and Ohtani -- 'They're good players, complete players.'
'What Ohtani is doing.....is fun to watch from afar.'
'He is that good from both sides. It seems like the sport stops to watch him.' #RedSox
Cora on Trout -- 'He enjoys playing the game.'
'He's a role model for all those kids who want to play the sport, for the minor leaguers who want to reach the big leagues. Forget the tools -- he's above everybody else.' #RedSox
Cora on the #RedSox pursuit of Ohtani -- 'I still have that email. They were mapping it out. It was very interesting -- very interesting. Kevin (Gregg) was going to have to scramble. They were probably going to have to build that MGM thing for the media to watch this guy.'
|
|