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Post by Kimmi on Jul 31, 2023 6:55:05 GMT -5
If the Sox can get into the playoffs, they'll have just about as good a shot of winning as any other team. Even though the correlation is still not very strong, the best predictor of postseason wins is regular season wins. Winning % against winning teams and Pythagorean W-L are slightly better better predictors. The key is to make in. I must also point out once again that Baltimore's Pythagorean W-L is 56-48, seven games worse than their actual record. They've been lucky in one run games. That's also selection bias. The reason why the ALE teams have the most wins vs > .500 teams is because they play the most games vs teams > .500. Fair point. We should be looking at winning % against winning teams as well. That said, playing a tougher schedule and winning says something about the caliber of the team.
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